There is a strong consensus among the various computer forecast models that the tropical disturbance near Jamaica will organize into a tropical depression before the end of the week and pretty quickly develop into Tropical Storm Sara.

The tropics are heating up once again. Late Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Rafael formed over the Caribbean Sea. After starting the day with a ragged, disorganized appearance, Rafael’s structure organized somewhat during the afternoon, and thunderstorm activity consolidated near its center — a sign of a strengthening storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Rafael late Sunday evening or early Monday morning. The term “potential tropical cyclone” is a designation that allows forecasters to issue watches and warnings before a storm officially forms.