Trump rejected Iran's proposal, lowering chances for a US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026. Odds for no meeting now at 16.2% YES ...

Japan’s 10-year JGB yield climbed 1.0 basis point to 2.480%, while the Polymarket contract for the Bank of Japan decreasing ...

Trump's team is reviewing an Iranian peace proposal amid tensions. Permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 at 1.6% YES, by ...

Morgan Stanley offers stablecoin issuers access to a $10M money market fund. USDC depeg by December 31, 2027 at 2.9% YES.

Iran’s UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani said guarantees against further US-Israeli attacks are necessary before Iran can ensure ...

Bitcoin's April dip-to-$60,000 contract sits at 0% YES as U.S.-Iran tensions rise. Bitcoin above $66K on April 25 at 99.9% ...

USS Rafael Peralta intercepted a tanker bound for Iran. US escorts commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30 at 1.9% YES.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council fears protests amid economic crisis. Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 at 5.5% ...

US accuses Chinese firms of AI theft, impacting Alibaba's AI model prospects. Alibaba best AI model by April 2026 at 0% YES.

Rubio accused Iran of using the Strait of Hormuz as an "economic nuclear weapon." Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction ...

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts oil transit. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 0.8% YES.

Hezbollah has adopted Ukraine-style fiber-optic FPV drones in southern Lebanon, introducing weapons immune to electronic ...