The National Hurricane Center began advisories Wednesday on a system it forecasts to become the season’s next tropical depression or storm. Long-range forecast models predict it will intensify into a hurricane and threaten Florida by the middle of next week.

A storm system, which would earn the name “Sara,” is expected to form soon in the Caribbean, and could affect the United States down the road. It’s too early to know exactly where the storm will go once it forms and what areas will be affected — particularly because the system has no established center of circulation yet.